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Mean Season

Hurricane's are an environmental disaster. People in hurricane-prone
regions most want to know: when and where the next hurricane will make
landfall and just how powerful the storms will be when they do hit. For the
most accurate warning possible, people rely on the meteorologists. Stilla
few tenacious problems remain, like that forecasters cannot always predict
weather nor how much a hurricane will intensify before it hits land. That's a
problem for people in the path of a storm who need to know if it's enough
just to nail plywood across the windows, or if they should leave town
altogether. The need for better hurricane forecasting will become more
urgent now as well as in the future to come. It will not take more than a
handful of major hurricanes striking land on the crowded and densely
developed U.S. East Coast to cause damage in the ten's of billions of
dollars. Forecasters rely on trends in the global climate that coincide with
the ups and downs of Atlantic hurricane activity.
One "predictor,” the warming of the equatorial Pacific, disrupts
weather across much of the globe. Shifts in air circulation disrupt the
vertical circulation in Tropical storms, which prevent them from growing
into hurricane's. Scientists are sure that Atlantic hurricanes assemble over
Africa. The collision of hot, dry air over the Sahara Desert, including warm,
moist air from the equatorial jungle will give birth. The collision will cause
disturbances in the atmosphere called "Hurricane Seedlings.” Each season
there is about 60 seedlings blown west into the Tropical Atlantic by the
trade winds. Atfirst, Seedlings are nothing more than clusters of
thunderstorms, but in an average year, nine will evolve into named tropical
storms and about six become hurricane's.
On their way across the ocean, seedlings feed on the heat in warm

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